The shift beneath the surface is more important than the headline totals. ETF flows have become intermittent rather than steady, with large episodic bursts separated by long periods of minimal activity. ETFs reflect cumulative holdings, while inflows and outflows reflect weekly subscription and redemption activity that shifts the stock.

DATs, in contrast, have driven marginal flows for much of the year, showing more frequent and more volatile buying weeks, in some cases between +100k and +400k. July marked the clearest inflection point, with DATs adding roughly +370k bitcoin in a single week compared to just +36k from ETFs. That pattern continued for several months, although by Q4, total structured inflows from both groups had declined sharply.

One useful measure is net flow minus issuance, which shows institutional absorption relative to new supply. In 2024, ETF and DAT demand often exceeded new issuance by wide margins, at times purchasing more than 660k bitcoin over and above what miners brought to the market. That environment coincided with the rally from the mid-50s into the 120s as structural demand helped tighten supply. By October 2025, bitcoin was setting new highs above 120k even as structural flows were weakening.

Understanding DATs

DATs are companies or DAOs that hold crypto assets directly on their balance sheets as part of their corporate strategy. The model was popularized by Strategy, and there are now hundreds of treasury companies operating across jurisdictions. Motivations vary, including portfolio diversification, partnership strategies and valuation positioning, but a consistent feature across many DATs has been the market premium their equities attract during periods of strong bitcoin performance.

Much of this accumulation has been financed through equity issuance, convertible notes and in several cases, straight corporate debt. That introduces leverage into strategies that are often presented as long-term reserve decisions, and it increases dependence on capital markets to sustain ongoing buying.

This is where mNAV, Market Net Asset Value, becomes a key metric. It compares a company’s market cap with the value of the crypto it holds. An mNAV above one means the equity trades at a premium to assets, enabling accretive fundraising. An mNAV below one closes that window, making dilution value destructive. As bitcoin prices fall, DAT equity valuations tend to move closely with the underlying asset, and when the premium narrows, financing becomes more difficult. In some cases, DATs may need to sell bitcoin to cover operations or service debt used to acquire earlier tranches.

The chicken or the egg of institutional demand

This creates a feedback dynamic. As bitcoin’s rise has slowed, DAT buying has slowed, too. It is not clear whether price consolidation is causing DATs to pause, or whether a weaker DAT bid is contributing to reduced momentum. It is likely a mixture of both. The structure functions well in rising markets when premiums support new issuance, but when that premium compresses, the same mechanism that once expanded balance sheets can begin to work in the opposite direction.